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Posted by: thepinetree on 04/10/2024 10:39 PM
Updated by: thepinetree on 04/10/2024 10:39 PM
Expires: 01/01/2029 12:00 AM
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The Latest Small Business Optimism Index Doesn't Bode Well for California
Sacramento, CA...Two surveys released today don’t paint a pretty picture nationally or in California for the small-business economy. As it does the second Tuesday of every month, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) releases its latest Small Business Economic Trends (SBET) report (also known as the Optimism Index) on the state of the small business economy nationwide. Also, as it does around this time, the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) releases its annual Rich States, Poor States report.
Today’s Optimism Index showed it below its 50-year average for the 27th consecutive month. Today’s Rich States, Poor States report showed California 47th among states for economic outlook.
“California’s consistently low ranking in the Rich States, Poor States report and others like it and the continued bad mood small businesses are in as expressed through our Optimism Index surveys stopped surprising years ago and are now the new normal, and that’s what’s sad,” said John Kabateck, California state director for NFIB. “Let me offer a couple of shots of Geritol for policymakers to consider, if they really want to make things better for the people who gave most of us our first job in life: 1. Congress needs to stop dithering and pass the Main Street Tax Certainty Act – now! -- to keep the 20% Small Business Deduction in the federal tax code from expiring next year, a deduction that so many small business owners have come to rely on. 2. The California Legislature could do many things, but nothing bolder than rejecting Assembly Bill 2200 when it comes up for its first hearing April 23. But don’t hold your breath waiting for that to happen. After all what’s $500 billion a year for a universal health-care plan when you’re running a $73 billion state budget deficit.”
From NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg on Today SBET Survey
“Small business optimism has reached the lowest level since 2012 as owners continue to manage numerous economic headwinds. Inflation has once again been reported as the top business problem on Main Street and the labor market has only eased slightly.”
Highlights from Today’s Optimism Index Report
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The net percent of owners who expect real sales to be higher decreased eight points from February to a net negative 18% (seasonally adjusted).
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Twenty-five percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business (higher input and labor costs), up two points from February.
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Owners’ plans to fill open positions continue to slow, with a seasonally adjusted net 11% planning to create new jobs in the next three months, down one point from February and the lowest level since May 2020.
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Seasonally adjusted, a net 38% reported raising compensation, up three points from February’s lowest reading since May 2021.
Keep up with the latest on California small-business news at www.nfib.com/california or by following NFIB on Twitter @NFIB_CA or on Facebook @NFIB.CA.
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For 80 years, NFIB has been advocating on behalf of America’s small and independent business owners, both in Washington, D.C., and in all 50 state capitals. NFIB is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, and member-driven association. Since its founding in 1943, NFIB has been exclusively dedicated to small and independent businesses and remains so today. For more information, please visit nfib.com.
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No Subject
Posted on: 2024-04-11 06:47:39
By: Anonymous
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Thanks to Amazon and AI. And ignorance on the MAGA Republican side.
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Posted on: 2024-04-11 07:18:14
By: Anonymous
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How is that? Most small business people are conservatives.
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Posted on: 2024-04-11 15:06:04
By: Anonymous
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Probably true in Alabama and Calaveras.
Probably not true of California in general.
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‘We Don’t Want Trump to Be in Gov’t’: Undercover Video Exposes Radicalization of Federal Reserve — ‘It’s A
Posted on: 2024-04-11 06:56:06
By: Anonymous
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“Under [Jerome] Powell, the Fed has changed to think about equity issues, like racial issues, think about wealth inequality as part of the mandate, as part of the things we are following. Think about climate change," principal economist tells OMG undercover journalist.
"He wants to be remembered in history as like, as somebody who held the line against, like Trump."
New undercover video by O’Keefe Media Group shows a top Federal Reserve official boasting about how the central bank has been politicized by far-left ideology, including race and climate issues as well as anti-Trump bias.
An OMG undercover journalist captured Aurel Hizmo, Federal Reserve Principal Economist of Real Estate and Finance Section, describing the “classified” far-left Environmental Social Governance (ESG) agenda the Fed now serves instead of its mandate to ensure a stable financial system.
Hizmo began by praising Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, for whom he’s also a speechwriter, for addressing “equity issues” and “climate change” goals, and “taking a stand against Trump.”
“Under Powell, the Fed has changed to think about equity issues, like racial issues, think about wealth inequality as part of the mandate, as part of the things we are following. Think about climate change,” Hizmo told the OMG journalist.
Hizmo, an admitted Biden supporter, also expounded on the Fed’s anti-Trump sentiment driven by Powell.
“Trump is just a crazy person. The feeling is this: we don’t want Trump to be in the government,” Hizmo said.
Hizmo suggested Powell’s decision to raise interest rates in 2018 in spite of Trump’s calls to lower them was politically rather than economically motivated.
“Trump was president. He wanted to stimulate the economy. But he [Powell] wouldn’t do it, and he started raising interest rates and doing the opposite of what Trump wanted,” he said.
“[Powell] wants to be remembered in history as like, as somebody who held the line against, like Trump, like somebody who helped the economy.”
After divulging the Fed’s new purpose, he said, “I’m just really worried that I’m saying stuff that’s classified…It’s all classified.”
Revelations that the Fed is prioritizing ESG policies comes as the economy continues to face elevated inflation despite the Fed hiking rates 11 times over the last year and a half.
The latest Consumer Price Index report released Wednesday shows inflation ticked up for the third straight month to 3.5%, prompting the futures market to speculate the Fed may delay cutting rates.
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Let’s Be Honest: The Economy Is NOT Doing Well
Posted on: 2024-04-11 07:02:25
By: Anonymous
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Predictably and appropriately, the establishment’s head-in-the-sand economic strategy is coinciding with a notable decrease in support for the Democrats—the establishment’s preferred party these days. President Biden is behind in the polls in six of the seven swing states and is losing support from working-class and nonwhite voters.
The American economy is not all right. But to see why, you need to look beyond the dramatic numbers we keep seeing in the headlines and establishment talking points.
Take, for instance, the latest jobs report. For the third month in a row, the American economy added significantly more jobs than most economists had been expecting—a total of 303,000 for March. On its face, that’s a good number.
But as Ryan McMaken laid out over the weekend, things don’t look as strong when you dig into the data. For instance, virtually all the jobs added are part-time jobs. Full-time jobs have actually been disappearing since December of last year. In fact, as McMaken highlighted, “The year-over-year measure of full-time jobs has fallen into recession territory.”
Also, most of these new part-time jobs are going to immigrants, many of whom are in the country illegally. There has been zero job creation for native-born Americans since mid-2018. While immigrants are not harming the economy by working, the scale of new foreign-born workers has papered over the employment struggles of the native-born population.
Further, government jobs accounted for almost a quarter of those added—way above the standard ten to twelve percent. Just like with government spending and economic growth, government hiring boosts the official jobs number while draining the actual, value-producing economy.
Some economists, like Daniel Lacalle, argue that the US economy is already experiencing a private-sector recession but that government spending and hiring are propping up the official data enough to hide it.
A recession is inevitable, thanks to the last decade of interest rate manipulation by the Federal Reserve—and especially to its dramatic actions during the pandemic. The recession-like conditions in full-time jobs is further evidence that Lacalle is right.
But jobs numbers are only part of the story. The stock market has been fluctuating a lot recently, not because of changing consumer needs or the adoption of some new technology, but based on what Federal Reserve officials are saying about what the central bank will do this year.
At the same time, prices are still high. And they continue to rise at a rate that frustrates even some of President Joe Biden’s biggest economic cheerleaders. Our dollars are worth about 20 percent less than they were four years ago, with no prospect of that trend reversing. That hurts.
But instead of addressing this economic pain, much less their role in creating it, members of the political class are still pretending everything is great. They’re even gearing up to make things worse by, for example, sending even more of our money to the Ukrainian government. All to prolong a war it’s losing, not because of a lack of money, but because of a lack of soldiers.
And at home, President Biden is scrambling to put the brakes on energy production and to transfer money from the working class to his base of college graduates, all before he’s up for reelection in November.
Predictably and appropriately, the establishment’s head-in-the-sand economic strategy is coinciding with a notable decrease in support for the Democrats—the establishment’s preferred party these days. President Biden is behind in the polls in six of the seven swing states and is losing support from working-class and nonwhite voters.
The political establishment and its preferred candidates deserve to lose support, not only for failing to acknowledge America’s economic problems but for causing them in the first place.
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